Por: Fredy Luis Mozo Polo - Desde Barranquilla, Colombia - fredymozo@hotmail.com
It is not an exclusive phenomenon of the Colombian currency. In spite of the measures taken by the central bank in Colombia, it is not known that it can pass in the immediate future with the economy of the country.
In the complex handling of the economy, tapas a hole and another opens up. But rather the controversial Alan tells it Greenspan, former president of the federal reservation of the United States who maintained for too low a lot of time the types of interest, and it is not pointed out to in fact lower them (6.5% to 1% at the beginning of the new century), but, for not going up them with the same speed.
Without place to doubts this economic wag - appreciating their currencies - they felt it most of countries of Latin America with the consequent disadvantage of their matter exports it prevails that it is what they produce losing competitiveness mainly in the exterior with the Asian countries. Of not taking the monetary correctives on time in this side of the continent we will have a bigger avalanche of goods of China and the Asian countries with bigger technology and cheaper manpower.
In Colombia, nowadays, the devaluation of the dollar maintains very concerned to the economic unions, to the monetary authorities and the exporters that suffer the biggest consequences and that he moves in it finishes instance to a great one I number of people that depend economically on them; obviously for their macroeconomic implications, especially, in the economic deceleration and their impact in the employment, the same as in the monetary politics for the adjustments that he forces like they are: to have moderation in the interest rate for controlar la inflación and moderation that it propitiates in the rate of change. In spite of the increase of the inflation in the last months, the bank of the republic maintains stable the interest rate.
Good, but why is it lowering the price of the dollar? The fall of the North American currency obeys a measure in its monetary politics and it is the decrease of the interest rate with the purpose of stimulating the investment, the consumption and to stimulate its exports, to correct its commercial deficit, to diminish the unemployment and logically to increase its gross internal product. In monetary handling the Federal Bank makes the same thing that makes the Bank of the Republic; they are inherent functions of the central banking: to control la inflación and the interest rate according to the behavior of the economy. When diminishing the bank interest he makes logically more attractive the market financial Colombian 9.75% in front of 2.25% that which attracts the financiers to deposit their capitals, dollars, in Colombia and other countries with a bigger interest rate, and with an added difficulty more in our means: the dollars of the underground economy.
These two antecedents make that the offer is bigger than the demand in the monetary market that makes him to diminish the value of the North American foreign currency. The monetary system and the economy in general are not of automatic adjustments and if the monetary authorities don't look for on purpose to take a short cut “already” the revaluation the prices of the national goods rise in price losing competitiveness, benefitting the imports, and certainly generating employment in the exterior. The medida contraria, the devaluation favors the exporters, it stimulates the economic growth, it increases the international reservations and it avoids that there are more unemployed in the country, it is this way, as the Bank of the Republic, he will buy twenty million dollars daily to press the rise of the dollar.
But that it will pass with this expansionary measure? There will be bigger money in circulation, against that which the originator will be shielded with a measure contraccionista and to avoid excess of money in circulation and to impede that the illness of the economy - the inflation - it is shot. They can also take other measures, to diminish the credit, to grant subsidies, flexibilizar the fiscal politics to the exporters; but eye should be measured the monetary politics's handling because in economy when you cover a hole it leaves you another.
