TEÓDULO LÓPEZ MELÉNDEZ, Writer and Journalist - Caracas, Venezuela
In the Súper Marses the 2000 were, of facto, defined the democratic candidacy. There were not doubts of that the one registered would be the Gore, for their condition of vice-president of Clinton. That usually happens when a vice-president in exercise aspires to the biggest position.
The primordial interest resided in George's confirmation Bush, governor of Texas, como republican applicant above the veteran of the Vietnam John McCain, now recurrent. In the following Súper Marses had a president, Bush, in search of the reelection, what marks the differences. Now there is not president for the reelection neither vice-president applicant. Now the game is open but, stiller, complicated.
It is necessary to make a reflection here. In that date it was sought that the Súper Marses became a general rehearsal of some primary ones. For that day that I believe it was March 7 the 2000 the democratic bosses and republicans had agreed 15 primary and a caucus among the democrats, and 13 primary among the republicans.
The primary North Americans are complicated. There is primary properly this and the caucus, species of open assemblies. Let us don't forget that minutes before somebody can register as voter for some of the two parties. Right now we see as February 2 the republicans-a couple of days before the Súper Marses - they carried out a caucus in Maine.
The primary ones were adopted 56 years like system of candidates' election ago and they present symptoms of exhaustion, in spite of the enthusiasm of these last ones where the number of voters has increased. Some question that two small states rural sen those that mark the exit.
Also, the partisan national addresses modify to their whim like it is the case of the primary ones in Florida where he decided to rob to that state of half of their representatives (114) and the winner of the war - John McCain - it only added 57 deputies in route to the Convention. For if it was little the primary ones in states like Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia take place Super after the Duper Tuesday what indicates that they generally make it when the candidates are practically already elected.
This Súper Marses presented elections in 22 states, several more than the election of the 2000, what demanded a disintegration of efforts that demanded the applicants to be centered in those where they have bigger opportunities. Now then, for their populational density, the keys are California, New York, Arkansas, Arizona, Georgia, Kansas and New Mexico. The victories in New York and California have allowed to Mrs. Clinton-with the evident Hispanic support - to take out the nose of the advantage.
It is excessively difficult to survive a defeat Super in the Duper Tuesday. My personal impression was that we would have a seated republican candidate and in roads of consolidating and perhaps a complicated situation among the democrats. The supports of last hour provided some effect, more among the republicans. For example, the retirement of Giuliani and their support to McCain helped him to become the winner.
The senator's support Kennedy to Obama was symbolic, because the democratic partisan structure this with Mrs. Clinton and the old clan that I take to the presidency to John lacks a specific political weight, unless in his feud of Boston and the renovation air that the color senator is printing to such a point that some observers-hastily, I find - he calls him the black Kennedy. The results of Massachussets confirm my initial impression: the Kennedy supported Omaba and there Clinton, the old clan won he lacks to be able to determinant to bow to the electorate.
They ask for mail which the president's effect is George W. Bush (and of its government) on the campaigns (and primary elections) of both American parties. It is obvious that the exhaustion of a president erratic weight on the final result, don't have more than enough the primary ones. I have understood that the government doesn't have you parcializado, at least in a notorious way, but it is clear as the water that the republican candidate will go with lead in the wing and that everything points to a democratic victory, inclusive for the characteristics of anyone of both-Obama or Clinton - that the definitive victory, but John achieves McKein he has the advantage of having faced to Bush like precandidato behind 8 years, of being critical of the strategy of postwar in Iraq and of being had associated with the senator Kennedy for the controversial project of legalization of the illegal immigration. This is, a republican with own approach, with antecedents of knowing how to face to their party and of defending their positions above any risk.
Bush represents the establishment . He is son of an expresidente with one second as Dick Sheney that embodies the linking with powerful sectors of the economy and that it was placed there by George's father W. Bush like an adviser privileged and eventual contralor of the elect son's inexperiences. This North American government has produced fatigue and the United States they were waiting a refreshing message, what we could call a recovery of the nation. He explains to it the success of Baruk Obama, the visionary one chancy that he remembers the best in Martin Luther King for moments and it remembers, it is necessary to admit it, to the young called Catholic senator John F. Kennedy with their challenge message for the American greatness.
This air of change also explains the difficulties of Hillary Clinton that has made all the possible one to combat to Obama trying to seem as anti-establishment.
It is obvious that the primary ones democratic-and further on the same presidential election - they are marked to be the first time that a color leader and a woman are disputed the presidential candidacy internally. And, also, because the or the one that wins will have the first option. So that United States can have its first wife president or the first black president. That implies a colossal change.
Behind they are the times of the racial discrimination or that that the North Americans not even thought about some years ago that a woman was president. United States has already changed for well. I don't dare to risk if it will be Obama or he will be Clinton, but to respond to your question it is possible that for first time for a long time the Super Duper Tuesday leaves us an unconcluded battle that is defined in the states that are considered excluded by not being included in great Tuesday. This way Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia would be claimed and practically they would be eligiendo to the next president from the United States.
The battle between Clinton and Obama has made that we forget to John a little McCain, an independent of approach that has not had few close contacts with the republican establishment. Of being on the edge of abandoning there is repuntado marvelously in spite of the opposition of the most conservative sectors in their party.
The results seem to indicate that these they don't believe in Romney and that they continue being about oponérsele taking from the hand to the governor from Arkansas Huckabee, what seems a desperate and useless effort. It costs McKein up it will be imposed and allow me to tell them that he won't be a candidate easy to conquer for Obama or for Clinton.
The democratic battle continues and the states that complain about being of filler because they vote now after the Súper Marses they will have the revenge. This way Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia will be claimed and they would be eligiendo to the democratic candidate. All one Súper Tomorrow.
